Are you familiar with the “Lindy Effect?”

The Lindy Effect, coined by Albert Goldman in 1965, was named after Lindy’s Deli in New York City.

Diner patrons noticed that shows on Broadway tended to follow a similar pattern:

If a play had been around for a year, it would probably be around for another year. 

If a show had been around for a decade, it would be around for another decade. 

And if it had been around for hundreds of years (like Shakespeare), then it would probably be around for hundreds of years more. 

As somebody who loves to chase shiny objects and get distracted by things that feel urgent or important now, and are quickly forgotten tomorrow, I have to remind myself of the Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect Applies Everywhere

When Nassim Taleb discovered the Lindy Effect, he realized it applied to so much more than just Broadway, as he explains in Antifragile:

A technology, or anything nonperishable, increases in life expectancy with every day of its life—unlike perishable items (such as humans, cats, dogs, and tomatoes). 

So a book that has been a hundred years in print is likely to stay in print another hundred years.

Every day an idea or story survives, the longer its life expectancy becomes. The same is true for restaurants, companies, albums, bands, etc.

My favorite recent example of The Lindy Effect: Next summer’s blockbuster film is Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” based on Homer’s 3000 year old epic! 

I’ve been thinking a lot about the Lindy Effect lately as it relates to my relationship with technology and modern life. Because we’re drowning in limitless abundance, there is so much damn noise that it’s hard to find the signal.

We have all become receivers of memory (like in The Giver):

• We are bombarded with 24/7 news and infinite dopamine hits.
• Every day we’re told about the newest, latest, greatest.
• Everything is the most important thing (for today).

Whenever we see a NEW or URGENT or MOST IMPORTANT THING today, I remind myself of the Lindy Effect. 

This doesn’t mean ALL new things are bad. It’s just that there is so much NEW every day that it’s almost guaranteed MOST of it will be gone tomorrow.

As Taleb says: “one needs to see all aspects of the idea—and there is always some opacity [lack of clarity] that time, and only time, can dissipate.”

If the idea or the breakthrough or the story is important enough, it will survive long enough to be known.

Trying to stay “up to date” on everything is often a waste of effort and brainpower!

After all, most things are “here today, gone tomorrow,” and just won’t matter by next week.

(Actually, most things are “here now, gone 15 minutes from now.”)

I’m more interested in what endures year after year after year… 

Especially when it comes to our health.

The Lindy Effect and Wellness: Just Play the Hits

The wellness industry is as comical as it is frustrating:

Social media and the 24 hour news cycle is built around capturing attention. The best way to stand out is to say something that’s never been said before. The only way to do that with health and wellness is to say something new and provocative. 

And the only way to say something new is to probably say something incorrect or a lie.

Us nerds at Nerd Fitness are pretty big fans of science and the truth. 

And every day, we fight the good fight, helping people fall in love with the boring basics:

• If we want to lose weight, we need to eat fewer calories (or vice versa).
• The best way to do this is by eating mostly whole foods.
• Fruits and vegetables provide necessary vitamins and minerals and help keep us full.
• Lifting weights or doing bodyweight exercises helps us get strong and stay antifragile.
• Eating protein is good for muscle repair and growth.
• Movement of any kind is good for heart and lung health. 
• Getting enough sleep helps all aspects of our life.

Everything else is pretty much hype, fluff, or nonsense.

For example, 99.9% of supplements, new products, or proprietary services that sound too good to be true are too good to be true.

You can skip all the hype and just focus on the basics above.

Now, you might be thinking: “Steve, you rapscallion, what about new technologies like GLP-1 weight loss drugs?” 

Interestingly, GLP-1 weight loss drugs actually prove the Lindy Effect: it’s a “new” technology, but it helps people quiet the food noise in their brain and interact with their hormones in such a way that they’re likely to consume fewer calories.

A calorie deficit is what creates weight loss. 

The Laws of Thermodynamics are undefeated, and a perfect Lindy Effect idea!

(By the way, I’m in support of people doing what’s best for them, including modern medicine and GLP-1s.)

I’d love to hear from you:

What’s one TIMELESS strategy you’re reprioritizing this week?

What’s one URGENT experience you’re going to stop prioritizing?

Here’s what I did:

• TIMELESS: I am currently reading Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice, as I’m trying to read more classic books (comically, I’m reading it on a Kindle, which is almost 20 years old!).
• URGENT: I unsubscribed from two podcasts that discussed the day’s global news and stock market swings. (I just invest in low cost index funds anyway!)

And yes, I did get my Switch 2 last week, which is new tech.

But it’s built by Nintendo, a company that’s been around since 1889, which is young by Japanese standards – they have 140 companies that are 500+ years old!

Okay, back to reading Pride and Prejudice!

-Steve

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