Will your new routine succeed or fail? This is the biggest indicator.

(This essay is also published on Substack)

I’ve been researching and writing about empathetic behavior change for the last 17 years.

(This makes me feel proud and old.)

Over that time, I’ve had 50,000 students move through my company Nerd Fitness’s online courses. I’ve also watched Team NF coach around 20,000 busy clients with Nerd Fitness Coaching.

Across every age, gender, and demographic, there’s one specific behavioral trait that has popped up repeatedly. It’s probably the greatest predictor of somebody’s chance to succeed (or fail) when building a new routine, habit, or system in their life:

It’s not how disciplined or motivated they are…

It’s not the structure of their morning routine…

It’s not their ability to make daily progress…

It’s how they respond when their plan doesn’t go according to plan.

I was interviewed about this very thing (and my book How to Try Again) by Mike Rucker for a recent Psychology Today article:

I have a hunch a lot of people might be “starting over” in the second half of 2026.

So today, I want to dive into one specific behavioral pattern that causes some people to thrive and others to really struggle.

Let’s first start with how most people react to a plan falling apart, and then we’ll cover how successful folks tend to react.

The Doom Loop: “All or nothing” becomes “ALL then nothing.”

In nearly two decades of researching and writing about behavior change, there’s one mentality that has wrecked more New Years Resolutions and workouts than any other:

An “all or nothing” mentality.

This is when the voice in our heads tell us:

  • “If I can’t do this perfectly, why bother doing it at all?”
  • “If I don’t have time for my full 60-min workout, it’s not worth it.”
  • “If I can’t work out 3 times this week, I’ll wait until life gets less busy.”

If this sounds like you, don’t worry. I’m not kidding when I say this is the most common behavior that has caused the most problems across everybody I’ve worked for the past two decades (myself included!)

In fact, it’s so common and sinister that I’ve given it a much more appropriate “movie villain” name:

The Doom Loop. Cue the evil music!

(Feel free to say “dun dunnnn DAHHHHHHH!” out loud).

I dedicated an entire chapter in How to Try Again to The Doom Loop, but here’s what it looks like:

Let’s walk through this step-by-step:

Step 1: Feel “less than.” Our brains love to tell us that we’re not enough. Not slim enough, not strong enough, not productive enough, not happy enough, not rich enough.

Step 2: Set irrational expectations. We hear about “the one thing” that will solve all our problems. The optimized cold-plunge morning routine, the specific food to avoid, the “one true workout.”

Step 3: Go all in! Make a GRAND DECLARATION! Buy the new journal. Download the strict meal plan. Spend $2,000 on fancy exercise equipment. We time-block our schedule. We set our alarm for 4:30 a.m. We set our expectation at perfect execution with militant dedication.

And this works for 1-2 weeks…

Step 4: “All-or-nothing” becomes “all, then nothing.” Life happens. Work sucks or we get a flat tire or our kid gets sick or the dentist tells us we need a root canal. Our perfect streak is broken. That one missed day becomes a missed week, which becomes a missed month. We get mad at ourselves for being undisciplined.

This is the loop that wrecks somebody’s progress more often than not:

All or nothing” becomes “All then nothing.”

A missed day creates guilt and shame, which leads to them ghosting their coach out of embarrassment and self-loathing, which leads to a missed week… which snowballs into more shame and guilt, and that leads to a missed month.

And then they try again by going ALL IN…and then fail again. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Until this vicious cycle is broken, the struggle will persist.

So, how the heck do we get our brains over this “all or nothing” mentality?

What do people who make lasting change do differently?

Want to read the first chapter of How to Try Again Free? Sign up below!

Couldn’t shower today? Shower tomorrow and move on!

In that interview for Psychology Today, I walked Mike Rucker through a dead-simple thought experiment about showering daily:

“[Imagine] a day so busy that you miss the opportunity to shower.

Almost no one in this situation would convince themselves they’re ‘bad at showering.’

You don’t go buy a shower journal, hire a shower coach, and promise to reinvent yourself next month.

You just take a shower the next day.”

Let’s first start with a strong dose of reality:

The fact that we couldn’t shower today has zero reflection on who we are as a person.

Today was a tough day, and that’s it. We move on with life and shower tomorrow. This is how we’re going to make imperfect progress for the rest of life:

Our goal is to be pretty consistent, most of the time.

Working out, changing our relationship with food, or trying to learn a new skill is difficult, especially when we’re all busy and juggling chainsaws. Which means we need to do anything and everything we can to overcome “all or nothing!”

This is what people who have long-term success tend to navigate well.

When they miss a workout or their week goes to hell, they accept it without shame or judgment, and move on. They act like this meme:

We can do this too.

When we miss a day, It’s not a reflection on our identity. We don’t need a new strategy or more podcasts or sign up for another class.

We can do the thing the next day, without guilt or judgment. We can act with curiosity and explore any lessons we might be able to learn from the day before. We can chalk it up to life happening.

And then we can do the thing tomorrow.

Now, what if we can’t do the whole thing? We can do part of the thing. There are so many acceptable amounts between “All” and “nothing.” “Some” is a perfectly acceptable amount!

Simple. But not easy.

Strategic half-assing and treading water for the win!

Where can you give yourself permission to remove the pressure of maintaing a perfect streak?

Where can you stop beating yourself up for one missed day, and just do the damn thing the next day?

Where can you just “Shower tomorrow,” and move on?

-Steve

PS: The “Doom Loop” and “Shower Tomorrow” strategies are a from adapted from parts of How to Try Again.

PPS: I’m hosting a secret book club for people on Wednesday afternoon for people who have bought How to Try Again. Simply forward your receipt to 1book@stevekamb.com and we’ll get you the details!


Visit HowToTryAgain.com for more details, book bonuses, and international copies.

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Also, you look nice today.

And I like your shoes.